I know that I usually only post “good news” articles, but this is too important to ignore. Why would the federal government want to raise the minimum down payment requirement and stall the economy just when we are starting to see recovery? Making the minimum down payment 10% (rather than the current 5%) would lead to other issues. If they continue to allow borrowed down thru the Flex Down programs, then you will see larger exposure to consumer credit which Mark Carney has also warned of in recent weeks. Here is a suggestion…if they must make a change, leave the 5% minimum down on owner occupied homes and remove the borrowed down options. Make the requirement that the funds be from savings. That way the home buyer has some “skin in the game”. Don’t get me wrong, I want them to leave the rules alone. But if they are set on change, this is a good option and will elevate the possible “bubble” that they are so worried about. As a member of CAAMP you have a strong voice. I would suggest you contact your CAAMP Director (Todd Harris) and get him to carry your views to CAAMP nationally and on to Mr. Flaherty and Mr. Carney.
Canada may require higher mortgage downpayments: report
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada may require people taking out mortgages to come up with a larger downpayment if it looks like indebtedness is getting too high, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in a interview released late on Sunday.
Flaherty's remarks echoed concerns voiced last week by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney about households' ability to pay down debt. Household debt relative to income has risen sharply though it is below U.S. and British levels, and Carney warned consumers not to assume that interest rates will stay low.
"If we see further evidence that there is excessive demand in the housing market or that there's an indication that people are taking on obligations that they will not be able to handle in the future when interest rates rise, then we will take some action," CTV television quoted Flaherty as saying.
"The likely action we will take is to increase the size of the downpayment from 5 per cent to a higher number, reduce the amortization -- bring it down from 35 years to something less."
Shortening the amortization period would mean mortgage payments would have to go up to pay the loan off more quickly, and might make people think twice about taking on more debt.
The interview with Flaherty is expected to air on the program Question Period on Sunday.
(Reporting by Randall Palmer; editing by Rob Wilson)
Federal government urged to go slow on tightening mortgage-eligibility rules
By B.H. Mckenna, The Canadian Press
TORONTO - Hints by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty that Ottawa may tighten mortgage eligibility rules if it sees evidence of a housing bubble developing sent ripples through the industry Monday, with analysts urging a cautious approach.
"The main risk here is overshooting, over-responding and basically shutting down or slowing down significantly the housing market," CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal said in an interview.
"That is a risk they have to take into account, because the housing market is a major, major contributor to overall economic growth and we are still in a very fragile state of the recovery."
Tal was reacting to reports based on a taped interview with a national news agency to be broadcast next weekend in which Flaherty said the government is worried Canadians may be taking on too much debt because of historically low interest rates and could get into trouble when rates inevitably rise.
In recent weeks, the Bank of Canada has called record household debt the top risk facing the country's financial system, a warning repeated in Toronto last week by the central bank's governor, Mark Carney.
The central bank did note that the risk to Canada's banking system was small, but worried that when interest rates rise to normal levels, up to 10 per cent of households could face difficulties in meeting monthly payment requirements.
Flaherty told a national news agency that if the government sees evidence of excessive demand developing in the housing market then it could take action.
One thing government might do is increase the minimum down payment on residential mortgages from five per cent "to a higher figure," he said.
The government could also reduce the amortization period from a maximum of 35 years "to something less," he said.
However, in an interview Monday with The Canadian Press, Flaherty emphasized that the prospect of a housing bubble is "not an immediate concern."
"If we needed to act, we could do what we've done before, in the summer of 2008, and that is to increase the down payment requirements for insured mortgages."
"I haven't looked at what we might do in terms of quantum (size of increase)," he said, adding that the government might also shorten the maximum amortization period or take other, unspecified measures to tighten lending requirements.
Gary Siegle, regional manager in Calgary for national mortgage broker Invis, said any stiffening of either down payment or amortization rules would "definitely" have an effect the marketplace.
"It's just a question of mathematics that there will be people who qualify today who wouldn't be able to qualify if those changes come into play," he said.
Siegle noted that with houses in Calgary selling for $350,000 to $400,000, the current five per cent down payment means buyers have to come up with $20,000.
"But if they decide to double it (the minimum down payment) to 10, then you looking at a $30,000-$40,000 down payment that they have to make."
Siegle said he would like to know the numbers Ottawa has in mind. "It would be really nice if they going to make that move it would be 7 1/2 instead of 10 (per cent) - a kind of middle-of-the-road solution just so that we could get not so dramatic an impact on the marketplace."
Otherwise, Siegle said it understandable for the government to worry about the effects of rising rates.
"Virtually everyone that I talk to agrees that its not a question if, its a question of when, they'll start to go up," he said.
"So when people are taking on mortgages that are $200,000 and $300,000 and $400,000... how are they going to adjust when they come up for renewal?"
"In my career, which spans 30-plus years, I've seen rates in the 20 per cent range. I don't think we're ever going to go there again, but even if they went to eight, what happens to people if their interest rate doubles?"
The effect of any move to reduce the maximum amortization period would be difficult to judge. The last time that happened, when the period was reduced from 40 years to 35, "was probably not significant because not a lot of people were going to 40 and we hadn't had it that long," Siegle said.
Meanwhile, Tal took some comfort from the fact that Flaherty was not specific as to the numbers it might consider.
"The trend (on consumer debt) is not extremely positive but the situation is not alarming," he said.
"I think they're concerned about the next 12 months and where we will find ourselves a year from now. So they're trying to be pre-emptive here and basically start to make sure the inflow of new business is of a higher quality."
"Therefore I don't expect this to be a huge increase (that would have)... an unreasonable and unnecessary impact."
Siegle said that while moves the government is likely to make would dampen the housing market "I wouldn't say it would kill it."
"They're still lots of people who want to get into houses and we're into a recovery, confidence (is) building in the consumer and rates are still at phenomenally low levels."
"So I think what will happen is it will take out some folks who aren't quite ready today. And the government's view probably is that if they're not quite ready, maybe they shouldn't be in the marketplace," he said.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Economies in Atlantic Canada set for growth
Economies in Atlantic Canada set for growth: RBC Economics
Rising global demand for key exports will boost East Coast prospects
TORONTO, Dec. 14 /CNW/ - All four Atlantic Canada provinces are set to experience growth in 2010, after successfully weathering the recession's negative impact on key export sectors during 2009, according to a new report by RBC Economics.
"While many challenges will remain, 2010 promises a new chapter of widespread positive economic performance," noted Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC.
In Nova Scotia, better than expected results kept the economy afloat during a tumultuous 2009 and limited declines in consumer spending. Job losses in manufacturing have been fully offset by employment gains in the services sector and public administration. The provincial government's $800 million infrastructure boost has helped support growth in non-residential construction. Weak demand for Nova Scotia's natural resources and manufactured goods, combined with falling commodity prices, took a significant toll on exports.
RBC forecasts a flat 0.0 per cent growth for Nova Scotia for 2009. This is revised slightly upward from the -0.4 per cent contraction projected in the September Outlook, with economic growth forecast at 2.8 per cent in 2010.
"We're expecting the province's key exports to get a boost from a strengthening U.S. economy, which in turn should lead to increased production in the energy sector and help revive the hard-hit forestry sector," said Wright.
New Brunswick's manufacturing and export sectors were severely impacted by soft commodity prices and weak North American demand. This impact was slightly offset by the provincial government's large stimulus program ($1.6 billion over two years), which helped fuel non-residential investment as well as employment. New Brunswick is expected to be one of only three provinces to experience employment growth in 2009.
According to the RBC report, New Brunswick's economy is expected to grow in 2010 as a planned 34 per cent increase in capital project investments for 2010-2011, a $258 million provincial income tax cut in January and as well as further improvement in the job market, should boost consumer spending and housing demand.
"With a stronger U.S. economy on the horizon and commodity prices staying on a firming trend throughout the upcoming year, boosting prospects for exports, the elements should be in place for the New Brunswick economy to start expanding again," explained Wright. "We're forecasting real GDP growth of 2.9 per cent, revised upward from our September projection of 2.7 per cent."
In Newfoundland and Labrador, RBC anticipates that the province's resource sector - representing approximately 30 per cent of real GDP in the province - will jump back into growth mode in 2010. Major declines in mining and crude oil production during 2009 are expected to reverse, with stronger global demand for iron ore.
Capital investment should continue to be a key driver of activity in the province. An aggressive infrastructure plan, $800 million in both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, should help advance several projects and improve consumer spending and boost employment. Retail sales are projected to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2010, up from a respectable 2.0 per cent in 2009, which is the only increase among provinces.
"We forecast real GDP growth for Newfoundland and Labrador in 2010 at 2.4 per cent, revised upward from 2.0 per cent projected in our September Outlook," said Wright. "GDP growth for 2009 has been revised downward to -4.5 per cent, reflecting the past year's slump in mining and oil and gas extraction."
According to the RBC report, Prince Edward Island has come through the recession in better shape than many of Canada's other provinces. Weak demand for the island's traditional tourism and seafood sectors was almost entirely offset by significant growth in the island's emergent technology industries. A dramatic decline in seafood exports was countered by strong demand for potato products. Due to export gains in technology and potato products, Prince Edward Island was the only province to show an increase in merchandise products (0.4 per cent) for the first nine months of 2009.
The provincial government has allocated $133 million for capital projects, which should help non-residential investment maintain its strong pace in 2010. Further growth is also expected in Prince Edward Island's aerospace and bioscience industries, which should boost employment growth to a nation-leading 2.1 per cent.
"An increased demand for shellfish exports and tourism, as global economic conditions improve, should support modest growth in Prince Edward Island's economy," Wright said. "We've revised growth projections for the province upward to 2.2 per cent for 2010, which is up slightly from our September forecast of 2.0 per cent. We expect 3.4 per cent growth in 2011."
The main theme of the RBC Economics Provincial Outlook is that a mild economic recovery is expected to be widespread among provinces in 2010, after a significant contraction spread across the country in 2009 (with only Manitoba and Nova Scotia barely avoiding a decline in activity). The full force of fiscal and monetary stimulus should positively contribute to growth in 2010. The price tag for that stimulus however, will be huge budget deficits. While such deficits might cause some discomfort, the alternative was even less attractive given the severity of the economic downturn. Returning to balance over the medium term will be a challenge involving difficult choices. Provincial economies are expected to be in solid growth territory in 2011, with the Prairie provinces - led by Saskatchewan - benefitting from strengthening commodity prices and hitting higher growth rates than the 3.9 per cent national average.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales and housing starts.
According to the report, available online as of 8 a.m. EST today at www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf, provincial forecast details are as follows:
Real Housing Retail
GDP starts sales
Y/Y % Change Thousands Y/Y % Change
09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
N.& L. -4.5 2.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.0 4.2 5.4
P.E.I. -0.1 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 -0.7 3.7 4.4
N.S. 0.0 2.8 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 -0.3 4.4 4.9
N.B. -0.3 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 -0.4 3.7 4.1
QUE. -1.6 2.2 3.7 41.5 42.0 44.0 -0.9 4.3 5.1
ONT. -3.2 2.4 4.0 50.5 65.0 68.0 -2.7 3.8 5.6
MAN. 0.2 3.0 4.0 4.2 5.4 5.5 -1.3 5.1 5.8
SASK. -1.6 3.9 4.6 3.4 4.1 4.4 -2.3 5.5 6.1
ALTA. -3.4 2.4 4.4 19.2 28.5 30.5 -8.5 4.9 7.0
B.C. -2.6 3.2 3.4 15.6 24.5 27.5 -5.8 5.7 4.6
CANADA -2.5 2.6 3.9 145.4 181 191 -3.3 4.4 5.5
Unemployment
Employment rate CPI
Y/Y % Change % Y/Y % Change
09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
N.& L. -2.5 0.6 1.8 15.5 15.7 14.9 0.4 1.8 2.3
P.E.I. -1.3 2.1 1.2 12.2 12.0 11.7 0.0 2.2 2.4
N.S. 0.0 1.3 2.0 9.2 9.4 8.8 0.0 2.1 2.4
N.B. 0.1 1.3 1.5 8.9 8.9 8.5 0.3 2.0 2.3
QUE. -1.0 1.1 2.2 8.5 8.8 8.1 0.6 1.6 2.2
ONT. -2.4 1.1 2.5 9.1 9.7 8.5 0.3 1.3 2.1
MAN. 0.2 1.4 2.2 5.2 5.5 4.9 0.7 1.8 2.3
SASK. 1.5 1.2 2.7 4.8 5.1 4.5 1.3 2.3 2.9
ALTA. -1.2 1.2 3.1 6.6 6.9 5.9 -0.2 1.3 2.0
B.C. -2.4 2.1 1.7 7.6 7.5 6.9 0.1 1.2 2.0
CANADA -1.5 1.3 2.3 8.3 8.7 7.8 0.3 1.5 2.2
Rising global demand for key exports will boost East Coast prospects
TORONTO, Dec. 14 /CNW/ - All four Atlantic Canada provinces are set to experience growth in 2010, after successfully weathering the recession's negative impact on key export sectors during 2009, according to a new report by RBC Economics.
"While many challenges will remain, 2010 promises a new chapter of widespread positive economic performance," noted Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC.
In Nova Scotia, better than expected results kept the economy afloat during a tumultuous 2009 and limited declines in consumer spending. Job losses in manufacturing have been fully offset by employment gains in the services sector and public administration. The provincial government's $800 million infrastructure boost has helped support growth in non-residential construction. Weak demand for Nova Scotia's natural resources and manufactured goods, combined with falling commodity prices, took a significant toll on exports.
RBC forecasts a flat 0.0 per cent growth for Nova Scotia for 2009. This is revised slightly upward from the -0.4 per cent contraction projected in the September Outlook, with economic growth forecast at 2.8 per cent in 2010.
"We're expecting the province's key exports to get a boost from a strengthening U.S. economy, which in turn should lead to increased production in the energy sector and help revive the hard-hit forestry sector," said Wright.
New Brunswick's manufacturing and export sectors were severely impacted by soft commodity prices and weak North American demand. This impact was slightly offset by the provincial government's large stimulus program ($1.6 billion over two years), which helped fuel non-residential investment as well as employment. New Brunswick is expected to be one of only three provinces to experience employment growth in 2009.
According to the RBC report, New Brunswick's economy is expected to grow in 2010 as a planned 34 per cent increase in capital project investments for 2010-2011, a $258 million provincial income tax cut in January and as well as further improvement in the job market, should boost consumer spending and housing demand.
"With a stronger U.S. economy on the horizon and commodity prices staying on a firming trend throughout the upcoming year, boosting prospects for exports, the elements should be in place for the New Brunswick economy to start expanding again," explained Wright. "We're forecasting real GDP growth of 2.9 per cent, revised upward from our September projection of 2.7 per cent."
In Newfoundland and Labrador, RBC anticipates that the province's resource sector - representing approximately 30 per cent of real GDP in the province - will jump back into growth mode in 2010. Major declines in mining and crude oil production during 2009 are expected to reverse, with stronger global demand for iron ore.
Capital investment should continue to be a key driver of activity in the province. An aggressive infrastructure plan, $800 million in both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, should help advance several projects and improve consumer spending and boost employment. Retail sales are projected to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2010, up from a respectable 2.0 per cent in 2009, which is the only increase among provinces.
"We forecast real GDP growth for Newfoundland and Labrador in 2010 at 2.4 per cent, revised upward from 2.0 per cent projected in our September Outlook," said Wright. "GDP growth for 2009 has been revised downward to -4.5 per cent, reflecting the past year's slump in mining and oil and gas extraction."
According to the RBC report, Prince Edward Island has come through the recession in better shape than many of Canada's other provinces. Weak demand for the island's traditional tourism and seafood sectors was almost entirely offset by significant growth in the island's emergent technology industries. A dramatic decline in seafood exports was countered by strong demand for potato products. Due to export gains in technology and potato products, Prince Edward Island was the only province to show an increase in merchandise products (0.4 per cent) for the first nine months of 2009.
The provincial government has allocated $133 million for capital projects, which should help non-residential investment maintain its strong pace in 2010. Further growth is also expected in Prince Edward Island's aerospace and bioscience industries, which should boost employment growth to a nation-leading 2.1 per cent.
"An increased demand for shellfish exports and tourism, as global economic conditions improve, should support modest growth in Prince Edward Island's economy," Wright said. "We've revised growth projections for the province upward to 2.2 per cent for 2010, which is up slightly from our September forecast of 2.0 per cent. We expect 3.4 per cent growth in 2011."
The main theme of the RBC Economics Provincial Outlook is that a mild economic recovery is expected to be widespread among provinces in 2010, after a significant contraction spread across the country in 2009 (with only Manitoba and Nova Scotia barely avoiding a decline in activity). The full force of fiscal and monetary stimulus should positively contribute to growth in 2010. The price tag for that stimulus however, will be huge budget deficits. While such deficits might cause some discomfort, the alternative was even less attractive given the severity of the economic downturn. Returning to balance over the medium term will be a challenge involving difficult choices. Provincial economies are expected to be in solid growth territory in 2011, with the Prairie provinces - led by Saskatchewan - benefitting from strengthening commodity prices and hitting higher growth rates than the 3.9 per cent national average.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales and housing starts.
According to the report, available online as of 8 a.m. EST today at www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf, provincial forecast details are as follows:
Real Housing Retail
GDP starts sales
Y/Y % Change Thousands Y/Y % Change
09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
N.& L. -4.5 2.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.0 4.2 5.4
P.E.I. -0.1 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 -0.7 3.7 4.4
N.S. 0.0 2.8 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 -0.3 4.4 4.9
N.B. -0.3 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 -0.4 3.7 4.1
QUE. -1.6 2.2 3.7 41.5 42.0 44.0 -0.9 4.3 5.1
ONT. -3.2 2.4 4.0 50.5 65.0 68.0 -2.7 3.8 5.6
MAN. 0.2 3.0 4.0 4.2 5.4 5.5 -1.3 5.1 5.8
SASK. -1.6 3.9 4.6 3.4 4.1 4.4 -2.3 5.5 6.1
ALTA. -3.4 2.4 4.4 19.2 28.5 30.5 -8.5 4.9 7.0
B.C. -2.6 3.2 3.4 15.6 24.5 27.5 -5.8 5.7 4.6
CANADA -2.5 2.6 3.9 145.4 181 191 -3.3 4.4 5.5
Unemployment
Employment rate CPI
Y/Y % Change % Y/Y % Change
09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
N.& L. -2.5 0.6 1.8 15.5 15.7 14.9 0.4 1.8 2.3
P.E.I. -1.3 2.1 1.2 12.2 12.0 11.7 0.0 2.2 2.4
N.S. 0.0 1.3 2.0 9.2 9.4 8.8 0.0 2.1 2.4
N.B. 0.1 1.3 1.5 8.9 8.9 8.5 0.3 2.0 2.3
QUE. -1.0 1.1 2.2 8.5 8.8 8.1 0.6 1.6 2.2
ONT. -2.4 1.1 2.5 9.1 9.7 8.5 0.3 1.3 2.1
MAN. 0.2 1.4 2.2 5.2 5.5 4.9 0.7 1.8 2.3
SASK. 1.5 1.2 2.7 4.8 5.1 4.5 1.3 2.3 2.9
ALTA. -1.2 1.2 3.1 6.6 6.9 5.9 -0.2 1.3 2.0
B.C. -2.4 2.1 1.7 7.6 7.5 6.9 0.1 1.2 2.0
CANADA -1.5 1.3 2.3 8.3 8.7 7.8 0.3 1.5 2.2
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